More Likely Than What? The Relevance of the Counterfactual in Nascent and Dynamic Industries

The rise of digital applications in every facet of our daily lives has substantially increased the pace at which markets evolve. Nascent markets today can turn into multi-billion-dollar markets in what feels like the blink of an eye, with firms positioned well in the early stages of market development often achieving strong positions that become difficult to contest. As a result, competition authorities have had to grapple with the difficult task of motivating intervention in merger situations w