Apple’s Hot And Cold Running Headlines

While contrasting views on display is an expected part of a presidential race, 2016 has managed the rare feat of coming down to five human beings running for the highest office in the land who somehow seem to share absolutely no common views with each other. While, in years past, voters have had campaigns that are all distinction with no difference, whatever else has gone wrong with this election cycle, there is pretty much no one making that particular complaint this time around.

It doesn’t get much more different than the race as it is unfolding in real time.

Which means that, in a way, Apple achieved a sort of miraculous feat when it pushed two very different campaigns — the ones being run by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders — into a rare moment of unity and agreement. Both candidates decided to name Apple as the stand-in villain of the global economy via the scores of manufacturing jobs that it has essentially outsourced overseas.

And while Apple is likely not overly hurt that it keeps getting called out as America’s main job exporter (it isn’t), it’s been that kind of bouncy news cycle for the world’s biggest company — with news getting bad, just in time for it to get good, just in time for it to turn south.

What was powering the wave pool?

Everyone Loves The iPhone SE…

While written off as a transitory product — unlikely to draw the same kind of excitement and buzz new model releases (with their new model pricing) normally draw — there are some early reports that the iPhone SE may have turned out to be more popular than initially expected.

While opening weekend sales for the newer, smaller iPhone were initially reported as somewhat sluggish, it looks like there may have been something of a slow building buzz for the phone, which is now turning out to be kind of tough to get hands on.

The four-inch SE is facing shortages in stores across the U.S., according to AppleInsider, and in-store pickup also seems to be unavailable for the new phone.

CNET independently verified that in-store pickup was totally unavailable in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Boston. The outlet found that even getting out of major metros did not help much.

Ordering online is an option, but even paying $10 for fast shipping won’t put the phone into one’s hands for about two weeks. Free shipping adds another week or so to the wait.

The phone is clearly getting bought up, which offers three obvious explanations: 1) The phone is very popular, as there is a larger market than expected for small, simple iPhones; 2) There was just too little inventory; 3) Some combination of 1 and 2.

Obviously, Apple prefers explanation 1, but there is some other evidence out this week that might tilt one toward 2 or 3.

…But Revenue Might Be Looking At Sluggishness For The Rest Of 2016

According to BTIG’s Walter Piecyk, Apple’s revenue growth could be delayed until FY 2017. Piecyk also forecasted a potential 4 percent revenue decline in FY 2016.

Piecyk’s pessimism is based on what he believes is a coming slower replacement cycle for iPhones — first demonstrated in the declining upgrade rate of Q1.

“It will take a few quarters and the launch of the next iPhone to confirm if end users are, in fact, holding onto their phones longer,” the analyst added.

The news is not all bad. Piecyk does believe profitability is returning, just not this year.

“We expect Apple to return to revenue growth in FY 2017 (+3 percent), which should be further leveraged by their persistent share repurchase program, resulting in single-digit EPS growth,” the BTIG report stated.

The EPS estimates for FY 2016 and 2017 have been reduced by $0.54 to $8.87 and by $0.53 to $9.57, respectively.

iOS 9 Continues To Be A Bug Fest…

Though rolled out somewhat more smoothly than iOS 8, iOS 9 has had some rather persistent problems since first debuting last fall.

And, if new reports are correct, the hits just keep on coming.

The newest problem accompanying the newest upgrade seems to be with links clicked while operating apps. Instead of navigating to wherever they are supposed to go, links are either freezing up entirely or sending users to their Safari homepage instead of to the desired destination.

The trouble derives from Universal Links, which was designed to redirect users to app content instead of to Web content. So, a user who clicked a Wikipedia link and who had the Wikipedia app installed on her phone would be directed to the Wiki page in the app instead of the mobile Web page.

The feature seemed to be working fine before iOS 9.3 — leading the new upgrade to get the blame for the Universal Link bug. This is despite the fact that Universal Links was reportedly not changed for the latest software update. However, since reports started to emerge about the problem, users of older versions of iOS 9 have also complained about the issue.

The issue seems to be one of scale. Developers prefer using Universal Links, which has led to some apps seeing hundreds, or even thousands, of links to the Universal Link list.

Then, when iOS 9.3 went live, Apple’s operating system automatically started checking for links and found itself overwhelmed by the number of new Universal Links it had encountered since the user’s last update. The system buckled under the pressure, and hence, the freezing problems began.

…But At Least Apple Pay Is Going To Coachella

The cool kids at Coachella this year — apart from the normal options for having their minds expanded — will have one new experience to add to the pile: Apple Pay.

Coming care of Square’s new Contactless and Chip Card Reader payment device, iPhone and Apple Watch users can go wallet-free for all their commerce needs. Square is the official point-of-sale provider for the festival.

And Android Pay users will benefit as well, since Square’s reader also supports the rival NFC-based system — though Apple Pay is getting the lion’s share of the headlines. Square introduced its NFC/EMV reader last year at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, and Apple sells the device at its retail stores.

Coachella’s organizers noted that this is the first festival to integrate open-loop payments, which are both faster and more flexible. IBeacon support is also part of the Coachella app, though that addition has been on board since 2014. This year, iBeacons will be used to send out “Surprise and Delight” rewards to attendees who are American Express cardholders. Based on location, these guests will be able to win prizes of some sort, though what “sort” they are has not yet been revealed.

Coachella will get underway on April 15 in California.

So, Apple is not popular with presidential candidates, but it is hoping to get in with the cool kids at Coachella. Analysts are predicting a sharp tumble in revenue, but it is at least possible that they are vastly underestimating the iPhone SE’s potential.

We’ll keep you posted.