Tariff Tally: Global Losses Eclipse $35 Billion Going Into Q3 Earnings

Even before third-quarter 2025 earnings started rolling in, global businesses had warned of over $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs .

That estimate is only rising as Q3 reporting hits the newsstands. Tesla alone flagged a $400 million loss for the most recent quarter due to tariff-related costs. While the Elon Musk-led automaker puts its cars together in the United States, it still must pay tariffs on imported raw materials.

Still, Tesla’s nearly half-billion-dollar haircut pales in comparison to the $9.5 billion full-year impairment forecast by Toyota earlier this summer from tariffs , higher input costs and supply chain disruptions. The situation isn’t entirely apocalyptic across the auto industry, however, with General Motors (GM) reporting during its Q3 earnings call that its projected tariff impact fell to $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, down from an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion.

For other firms across various sectors, worst-case scenarios have been revised downward, buoyed by bilateral relief deals (notably with the European Union and Japan) and tactical carve-outs of tariff application.

However, the S&P Global Ratings have seen 55 tariff-driven ratings actions as of Oct. 17, with just one of them being a positive outlook revision, per a statement shared with PYMNTS. It’s evidence that balance sheets are feeling the strain even as headline profits may appear to hold up.

At the same time, corporate C-suites are increasingly getting their footing in this new and uncertain landscape. The transparency of firms regarding their tariff exposures has improved, as executives are increasingly able to forecast the cost impact of import duties and reflect those in earnings guidance.

Read also: Tariff Tally: The Billions Vanishing From S&P 500 Balance Sheets

How Global Business Is Repricing the Cost of a Fragmented World

While the cost of U.S. tariffs is not trivial, the fact that major corporates can now plan around tariff exposures represents a potential form of stabilization.

Nike is taking this route, reporting a revenue beat in its most recent fiscal quarter despite raising its projected tariff impact to $1.5 billion from $1 billion because the apparel company makes most of its shoes in Vietnam, which does not have a trade agreement with the U.S.

Nike rival Adidas is also mitigating the tariff fallout across its business, raising its 2025 earnings forecast , with executives expressing belief that they will be able to limit the impact from U.S. tariffs.

Texas Instruments , however, did not share as rosy a story with its own investor base, forecasting revenue and profits for the remainder of the year below Wall Street estimates, sending its stock down around 6% Wednesday (Oct. 22) on leadership’s cautious estimates for the semiconductor industry’s recovery.

The ultimate consensus among multinationals is that the tariff environment has transformed from a crisis event into a business‐as‐usual variable.

From a business strategy perspective, three themes emerge. The first is normalization. Tariff costs are increasingly embedded into planning cycles and supply chain design, rather than treated as exceptional.

The second is risk reallocation. The burden of trade policy is shifting. Large firms can absorb or hedge, small firms less so; consumers are increasingly bearing the cost; and the structural winners (e.g., domestic advanced manufacturing) may not offset losses in broader sectors.

The third is policy volatility. Despite signs of stabilization, the potential for renewed escalation remains a live risk, and firms must build flexibility into sourcing, pricing and portfolio decisions.

See also: Uncertainty Over Tariffs and Regulations Test Corporate Resilience

Macro Impact Across Consumers and Small Businesses

On the consumer side, an independent analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale revealed that the average effective tariff rate has been elevated to the highest since the 1930s, with a measurable drag on household incomes and GDP.

The situation is not much rosier for the small- to medium-sized businesses ( SMBs ) on Main Street that make up the bulk of the U.S. economy. Nearly 1 in 5 SMBs are pessimistic about their odds of survival over the next two years, according to the PYMNTS Intelligence report “ Brewing Storm: Why 1 in 5 Smaller Businesses Without Financing Fear They May Not Survive Tariffs .”

Separate PYMNTS Intelligence in the eBook “ Data Book: Tariffs Drive Price Pressures as SMBs Weigh Supply Chain Overhauls ” found that among the 500 SMBs surveyed, roughly 7 in 10 are very knowledgeable of the tariffs that are here and that are looming. Sixty-two percent of SMBs anticipate product shortages and 66% foresee higher raw material costs as part of their supply chain picture.

SMB margins are typically thinner, supply chain flexibility is lower, working capital constraints are greater, and alternative sourcing is harder to secure. While major firms can recalibrate, hold price increases or absorb in margin, smaller companies are more exposed to volatility in tariff policy, potentially triggering delayed investment, workforce cutbacks or even exits.

Read more:

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