Middle-Market Confidence Splits in 2026 as Tariffs and Supply Chains Weigh on High-Uncertainty Firms

Uncertainty is no longer a background condition for middle-market firms. It is now a measurable cost center.

That was the central theme of “How Business Uncertainty Is Forcing a New CFO Playbook,” the latest installment of PYMNTS Intelligence’s The 2026 Certainty Project. Drawing on nine surveys of chief financial officers at companies in the United States with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion, the report tracked how tariff policy shifts, supply chain strain and uneven sector performance reshaped 2025 and are setting the tone for 2026.

While overall uncertainty levels appear stable year over year, the data revealed a widening divide between goods and services firms and a link between elevated uncertainty and weaker financial outcomes.

The top-line figures suggested modest change. In 2025, 26% of CFOs reported high operational uncertainty, compared with 29% in 2024. However, that stability masked sharp sector splits and mounting pressure inside specific industries.

Key data points included:

CFOs reported high operational uncertainty in 2025 at 26%, versus 29% in 2024.

Uncertainty reduced revenue in the past 12 months for 53% of CFOs at high-uncertainty firms, compared with just 8% at low-uncertainty firms.

High-uncertainty firms attributed 6% of average revenue loss to uncertainty, roughly double the impact reported by medium-uncertainty companies.

The deeper story was found beneath the figures. Goods producers bore the brunt of volatility as tariff threats shifted into enacted policy. Nearly three in 10 goods-sector CFOs reported high uncertainty in 2025, up 27% from the prior year. Within that group, manufacturers and construction firms experienced the steepest rise. Traders and distributors saw conditions ease somewhat.

Services firms moved in the opposite direction overall, with fewer CFOs reporting high uncertainty in 2025 than in 2024. Yet even here, the picture was uneven. Education and healthcare executives reported a drop in uncertainty. Financial services and technology leaders did not.

Global exposure magnified the pressure. Among firms with only domestic suppliers, 18% of CFOs reported high uncertainty in 2025. That figure rose to 33% for companies with at least 40% of suppliers overseas. Confidence also mattered. More than half of CFOs who lacked confidence in their ability to adapt to tariff disruptions reported high uncertainty.

The financial consequences are direct. High-uncertainty firms were more than twice as likely to report client turnover and missed expansion opportunities. Half reported diminished profit margins. Many fell short of internal performance expectations. Liquidity positions weakened. Investment plans narrowed.

Caution now shapes 2026 outlooks. Less than one-quarter of CFOs at high-uncertainty firms said they expect revenue growth this year, while more than a third said they anticipate declines. By contrast, 96% of low-uncertainty firms forecast revenue gains.

Strategic priorities reflect that divide. High-uncertainty firms are holding steady on supply chain fixes and cash flow management. Customer experience is rising in importance. Technology investment remains limited, with only a minority prioritizing artificial intelligence adoption or digital transformation.

The result is a bifurcated middle market. Some firms are positioning for expansion. Others are conserving resources and managing risk.

Uncertainty has become operational.