Will Black Friday 2025 Be a Repeat of Last Year?

Black Friday 2024. Nov. 29. The top movies were “Wicked,” “Moana 2” and “Gladiator 2.” It rained on the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade. News stories about tariffs were notably absent. AI was a mere curiosity outside of the business world. The stage was set for a healthy surge of holiday shopping as the sting of COVID continued to fade from consumer memory.

As PYMNTS gets set to publish its exclusive Black Friday Holiday shopping report next Monday, it’s worth looking back at the relative calm of 2024. Last year, consumers approached Black Friday 2024 with a strategy unlike any before. The new pattern was not only how much people spent but how much of that spending had already happened before the day itself.

The special report “Sales, Not Sentiment, Drives Black Friday Turnout” from PYMNTS Intelligence showed that Black Friday in 2024 continued to anchor the holiday shopping season even as the traditional single-day surge stretched across the entire week. The report, based on a census-balanced survey of 2,811 U.S. consumers on Nov. 29 and 30, found that shoppers redirected their attention to early online deals that helped them avoid crowds, manage budgets and secure discretionary purchases ahead of time.

Overall participation reached its highest level since 2020. Sixty-two percent of U.S. consumers made at least one Black Friday purchase in 2024, up from 53% in 2023. The meaning of participation, however, had shifted. Retailers had expanded “Black Friday” pricing throughout the week, and consumers responded by splitting their spending across multiple days instead of concentrating it on Nov. 29.

Key data points from the report included:

39% of Black Friday spending happened before the day itself, driven by early deal-seeking and a desire to avoid crowded stores.

72% of Black Friday shoppers made purchases online, reinforcing the shift toward digital channels and away from in-store exclusives.

Shoppers using buy now, pay later spent 86% more than financially stable peers who used other payment methods, highlighting BNPL’s role in discretionary purchases.

The report found that early shopping captured a significant share of holiday budgets. Consumers allocated 43% of their seasonal budgets to Black Friday deals overall, including purchases made in the days leading up to the event. Convenience played a major role. Many consumers who started early said they were trying to avoid long lines and crowded stores, a trend consistent with the steady rise of online shopping.

The digital shift also influenced purchasing priorities. Nearly half of consumers shopped with specific items in mind, while one-third browsed by category. Only 19% shopped spontaneously, underscoring the event’s more intentional tone. Luxury aspirations remained strong. Fifty-seven percent of shoppers expressed interest in luxury goods, but only 22% said brand names mattered most. More consumers focused on look and feel rather than status, and that shaped spending levels. Luxury-focused shoppers spent an average of $471.99, compared with $230.92 among those who did not seek luxury items.

Spending patterns also reflected broader financial trends. Millennials posted the highest average spending at $388.40, followed by Generation X and Generation Z. Consumers not living paycheck to paycheck led overall spending, averaging $376.17. Even consumers who struggled to pay bills participated, spending an average of $282.81. Value remained the main draw. Nearly 29% of shoppers said finding the best deal was their top motivation, while only 5% cited tradition.

Other findings pointed to a holiday season that continued to evolve around digital habits. Fifty-nine percent of shoppers purchased nice-to-have items for others, and more than half purchased such items for themselves. Experiences such as trips or massages, once a smaller category, also attracted meaningful participation. Essentials played a smaller role, showing that the event still centered on discretionary spending at a discount.

The report concluded that Black Friday remained a major consumer event, but the way shoppers engaged with it had changed. The day was no longer the sole destination for deals. Instead, it became the center of a broader window of activity shaped by early promotions, online convenience and value-driven spending.