Most Polymarket Users Lose Money as Top Accounts Win Big

Among traders on Polymarket’s prediction market platform, there are almost twice as many who have lost at least $1,000 as there are who have made that much, Bloomberg reported Tuesday (April 28).

Bloomberg analyzed every wallet active since the beginning of 2025 and found that over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, according to the report.

The analysis also found that among the 2 million wallets active since early 2025, almost half made or lost less than $10. Bloomberg said that finding signals that people are experimenting with prediction markets. Among those accounts, most lost money, per the report.

The Bloomberg analysis also found that during the period studied, 5% of wallets accounted for 75% of trading volume on Polymarket.

These high-volume accounts made $131 million on their trades, with 823 of these accounts netting more than $100,000 each, according to the report. The other, lower-volume accounts collectively lost the same amount on their trades.

Polymarket did not immediately reply to PYMNTS’ request for comment.

Bloomberg selected Polymarket for this analysis because it is the biggest platform offering a public blockchain record of all accounts. There is no sign that the results of Polymarket users are any worse than those of other prediction market platforms, the report said.

It was reported in January that prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi had seen their weekly notional volume jump from $500 million in June to nearly $6 billion in January.

The report said that as the cryptocurrency market cools, one-time token traders are shifting to prediction markets.

It was reported April 16 that Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to hit $1 trillion by 2030 as the industry moves from niche bets to a larger “information market” that covers sports, cryptocurrency, politics and the economy.

The report said prediction market volumes reached $51 billion in 2025 and are on track to come to around $240 billion this year, which implies approximately 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade.

As of mid-April, Polymarket and Kalshi had seen combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion, per the report.