Projection Forecasts Stable New Vehicle Retail Sales For November

A joint outlook from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive forecasts that new vehicle retail sales for November 2020 will drop slightly from the same month the prior year, according to a Wednesday (Nov. 25) press release.

Retail sales for new automobiles are forecast to be 1.04 million units, which represents a 0.7 percent fall in contrast to November of last year when adjusted for selling days. November 2020 has three fewer sales days and one less selling weekend in contrast to November of last year. A comparison of the same sales volume without factoring in the number of selling days leads to a 12.2 percent year-over-year drop.

“November 2020 is a prime example of why accounting for selling day differences is important in measuring comparable sales performance,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said in the press release. “After two consecutive months of year-over-year retail sales gains, a quirk in the November sales calendar will result in new-vehicle retail sales appearing to fall 12 percent.”

Overall new vehicle sales for November, with the inclusion of non-retail and retail transactions, are forecast to be 1.208 million units, representing a 3.5 percent drop from November of last year when selling days are taken into account.

A reporting of the same numbers without factoring in the number of selling days leads to a 14.6 percent drop from November 2019.

The average new vehicle retail transaction price this month is forecast to be just under $38,000. The past high for any month was set in October this year at $36,755.

The pandemic’s economic effects keep roiling the auto sector, but instead of negatively impacting sales, COVID-19 is moving them to online channels. The age-old practice of  “kicking the tires” of a vehicle at a local dealership is more and more moving deal-hungry consumers to “clicking the tires” in hopes of finding the perfect new ride digitally.