Home Depot Sales Could Soften Due to Tariffs

One of Home Depot’s critical sales metrics is expected to slow when it reports earnings.

That’s according to a report Monday (May 19) from Bloomberg News, citing a survey of analysts who say the home improvement retailer’s comparable sales are projected to soften. The report noted that investors will gauge the company’s results as an indicator of how tariff concerns and declining consumer sentiment may affect the housing market.

“There’s more risk to the numbers than we would’ve thought at the beginning of the year,” said Michael Baker, an analyst for D.A. Davidson. “I would not be surprised if it takes a little bit of a step back.”

As the report noted, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have led to chaos throughout many industries and threaten to drive up the cost of housing products and curb spending. Steep interest rates have already lessened consumer demand for home projects, which has hampered Home Depot’s sales in the last two years.

The report also cited findings from Bain & Co. showing that home products are among the most exposed categories to tariffs. In addition, many of these items are discretionary, so demand and price are closely tied.

It’s not just Home Depot feeling pressure. The report said that Lowe’s same-store sales are also forecast to dip, while Floor & Decor cut its full-year sales forecast earlier this month. Home Depot is scheduled to release its earnings on Tuesday (May 20).

Home Depot CEO Edward Decker was part of a group of chief executives who met with Trump last month, warning the president that tariffs could make higher prices tough to avoid, while some products could become scarce if retailers choose not to sell them due to tariff costs.

As PYMNTS wrote Monday, the tariff situation “has already seen months of disrupted global supply chains that could signal a new era of fragmented bilateral trade agreements.”

Recent research from PYMNTS Intelligence — from the May edition of The 2025 Certainty Project, “Tariffs and Business Uncertainty: The Current State of Play” — found that more than 50% of respondents in goods-producing sectors expect negative impacts from tariffs, an increase from prior months. This sentiment is fueled by the anticipation of supply chain disruptions, product delivery delays and rising raw material costs.

“The pervasive and ongoing uncertainty is influencing business decisions, with many firms delaying investments and hiring plans until there is more clarity on trade policies,” PYMNTS wrote. “The first quarter of 2025 saw the U.S. economy shrink by 0.3%, the first contraction since 2022, underscoring the tangible impact of trade tensions on economic performance.”