Business Uncertainty Costs Middle Market Companies Up to 6% of Revenue

Business uncertainty remained elevated in March, with 27% of payment executives reporting high uncertainty levels even as optimism about the next 12 months rose, according to new PYMNTS Intelligence data.

Executives appear increasingly willing to accept that volatility is no longer an occasional disruption but an operating condition that shapes investment decisions, pricing assumptions and growth expectations.

The April edition of The Certainty Project found that business uncertainty is elevated despite signs of improving sentiment. The result is a business environment where confidence and caution now coexist. Firms believe conditions may improve, but they are still managing as though disruption remains possible.

Three findings help explain what is changing and what is not:

The share of heads of payments who said their firms faced a high level of uncertainty in March was 27%. That reading remains close to levels recorded during earlier periods of tariff-related disruption and suggests forecasting pressure has remained stubbornly persistent even as the drivers of uncertainty evolve.

Goods companies reported high uncertainty levels at 47%. Goods businesses once again emerged as the most exposed segment, reinforcing how sectors dependent on supply chains, inventory management and pricing decisions often absorb economic volatility first.

Over the next 12 months, 72% of payment leaders expect uncertainty to decline. That optimism marks an improvement from earlier readings and suggests many executives still see current conditions as temporary rather than structural, even if operational decisions continue to reflect caution.

What stood out in the report is that uncertainty is increasingly measurable as a business expense rather than simply a sentiment indicator.

The average financing cost tied to uncertainty reached 2.9% of revenue over the past year. For companies reporting high levels of uncertainty, the burden more than doubled to 6.2% of revenue. That spread illustrates how volatility creates real financial consequences, affecting everything from investment timing to inventory decisions and working capital management. The findings showed that those pressures remain materially higher among businesses facing persistent disruption.

The report also suggested that businesses are becoming more sophisticated in how they think about forecasting. Instead of waiting for conditions to normalize, firms appear to be building operating models that assume continued swings in demand, costs and market conditions. In practice, that means greater emphasis on flexibility, scenario planning and access to timely financial and payments data.

The report stopped short of suggesting businesses have become comfortable with uncertainty. Rather, pragmatism is the result, as companies are adapting to uncertainty.

That distinction matters because forecasting under uncertainty increasingly looks less like an exercise in prediction and more like one in resilience. Firms that can absorb shocks, update assumptions quickly and preserve optionality may gain an advantage over those still planning for a clean return to stable conditions.

Uncertainty may ease or it may not, but businesses are learning to operate while it remains high.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.