Counterpoint Says Apple Will Overtake Samsung in Global Smartphone Sales

Apple is reportedly set to overtake Samsung as the world’s top seller of smartphones and hold that title through 2029.

Global market research firm Counterpoint Research made these forecasts in a Wednesday (Nov. 26) press release , adding that Samsung has been the top seller of smartphones since 2012, when it surpassed Apple.

Counterpoint attributed Apple’s gains to the popularity of its new iPhone 17 series. During the third quarter, the company’s smartphones posted 9% year-over-year growth in shipments.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” Counterpoint Senior Analyst Yang Wang said in the release. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

In addition, the users of the 358 million second-hand iPhones that were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025 are likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years, which is likely to keep iPhone shipments growing, Wang said in the release.

Apple’s momentum is also likely to be helped by the launch of the second model in its more affordable “e” series in the first half of 2026, its first foldable iPhone by the end of 2026, and its first flip iPhone by late 2027, according to the release.

While the delay in Apple Intelligence and a new Siri “has not been a detriment to iPhone sales,” the upcoming launch of those features is expected to provide additional incentive for consumers to upgrade their phones, per the release.

“Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade,” the release said.

Apple debuted the first model of its lower-cost “e” series smartphone , the iPhone 16e, in February. The company said that model, starting at $599, would bring more customers to Apple.

The company launched the iPhone 17 in September and saw strong demand for the smartphone from the first day of its availability.