Goldman Says Consumers Will Soon Feel More Tariff Pain

American consumers could soon feel increasing tariff-related pain with their purchases.

That’s according to a report Monday (Aug. 11) from Bloomberg News, citing research from Goldman Sachs .

While U.S. companies have so far absorbed the brunt of the impact of the White House’s tariffs , consumers will soon feel more pressure as companies raise prices, the bank’s economists said.

While consumers have — as of the end of June — absorbed roughly 22% of tariff costs, that figure will jump to 67% should the newest levies follow in the path of earlier tariffs, the economists said.

The Bloomberg report notes this will lead to faster inflation. The core personal consumer expenditure index, a key Federal Reserve inflation metric, is projected to reach 3.2% year-on-year in December, according to the Goldman report. The analysts said underlying inflation net of tariffs would be 2.4%, down from 2.8% in June.

The findings follow last week’s release of the July 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.

That report showed that while American consumers feel more optimistic about their finances, they are wary of several other economic factors, with their short- and long-term inflation expectations increasing.

Meanwhile, research by PYMNTS Intelligence has been tracking the effect of tariffs on consumers. It found, among other things, that nearly a third of consumers had delayed or canceled discretionary buys such as electronics, home décor, or even back-to-school supplies.

And 42% of the surveyed consumers said they now compare prices at three or more retailers before making a purchase, up from 27% in January.

PYMNTS analysts caution that prolonged periods of out-of-stock items can “train” shoppers to regard once-routine purchases as risky, making thrift a long-term habit and eroding lifetime customer value for brands.

“Tariffs are no longer an abstract policy lever,” PYMNTS wrote last week. “They are a daily pain point at the checkout aisle. Retailers must brace for a consumer who is both price-sensitive and chronically unsure whether the product will even be on the shelf.”

And as covered here last week, the impact of tariffs could stretch beyond higher prices for product goods.

“For bankers, payments networks and FinTech platforms, the era of tariffs affects trade‑finance credit, supply‑chain hedging and working‑capital automation,” that report said. “Product heads must now address new calculations for budgeting capital, currency exposure and re-routing suppliers, functions that tap into fee‑generating services, from letters of credit to cross‑border virtual accounts to receivables‑backed deals.”