Holiday Shipping Peak Could Be ‘Virtually Nonexistent’ Amid Tariffs

The impact of U.S. tariffs continues to rock the logistics and transportation industries, CNBC reported Thursday (Nov. 20).

Major ports are seeing a drop in imports. For the first time this year, rates in October for van, flatbed and refrigerated loads were lower on a monthly and annual basis, the report said, citing the DAT Truckload Volume Index.

“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said, per the report. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually nonexistent this year.”

Census data showed a drop in imports in August after additional tariffs went into effect, $18.4 billion less than the level of July imports, the report said. The import drop helped feed a more than 23% decline in the nation’s trade deficit.

Also hurting the industry are retailers and manufacturers who have paused heavy freight orders, fearing consumer pullback related to food and consumer product inflation, according to the report.

“For the first time since March 2023, we’re seeing monthly import volumes consistently fall below 2 million TEUs—this isn’t just a seasonal dip or temporary correction,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of real-time container tracking platform Vizion, per the report.

The data shows a “structural goods recession” fueled by the combination of tariff uncertainty, frozen housing markets, and less consumer spending on physical goods, he said, according to the report.

The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Income Instability Is Redefining the Paycheck-to-Paycheck Economy” found that consumers’ finances are “less robust than they might appear” ahead of the holiday shopping season.

And lighter wallets will mean a less happy season for retailers during what is normally their busiest time of year.

The Conference Board forecast a 6.9% decrease in holiday spending this year, with the average consumer planning to shell out $990 on gifts, décor, food and other seasonal items, compared to $1,063 in 2024.