Trustly Says Pay by Bank Is Cost-Savvy Option for Merchants

Growth in U.S. pay-by-bank volumes will be driven by both technological innovation and economic necessity, Trustly founder and CEO Alexandre Gonthier writes in a new PYMNTS eBook, “Halftime 2025: Charting the Future of Payments.”

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, I find myself reflecting on a pivotal moment that reminds me of Netflix’s disruption of Blockbuster — but this time, it’s happening across our entire payments ecosystem. The first half of this year has delivered seismic shifts that are fundamentally reshaping how money moves, and frankly, many players are still catching up to this new reality.

The Real-Time Revolution: Speed Meets Stability

The first half of 2025 has crystallized a fundamental shift toward instant settlement that’s reshaping competitive dynamics. FedNow adoption has accelerated beyond projections, with transaction volumes up in Q4 2024, a 2,000% year-over-year rise, while RTP networks are finally delivering on their promise of ubiquitous real-time payments.

What’s particularly fascinating is the emergence of stablecoins as a bridge between traditional banking rails and digital assets. We’re seeing enterprises experiment with USDC and USDT for cross-border settlements, seeking the speed and non-revocability of cryptocurrency transactions with the familiarity and stability of fiat. However, regulatory uncertainty around stablecoin classification continues to limit mainstream adoption.

At Trustly, our focus remains laser-sharp on guaranteed real-time bank payments, leveraging ACH as the foundation as the most universal settlement network. While others chase the stablecoin narrative, which makes sense in cross-border use cases albeit starting with a limited population of crypto-enabled consumers today, we’ve enhanced our instant payment capabilities to focus on domestic use cases. In this, we are achieving up to 80% cost reductions for merchants and billers compared to traditional card networks, with approval rates exceeding 95% across 100% of the banked population — i.e. anyone with one or multiple checking or savings accounts — more buying power at the point of sale than crypto for sure, but even debit cards that are linked to a single checking account.

The AI Imperative: Beyond the Buzzword

Artificial intelligence isn’t just transforming our fraud prevention — it’s revolutionizing how we understand consumer behavior. Our AI-driven risk assessment models now process over 100 million data points per transaction, enabling us to guarantee ACH payments that traditional providers won’t touch. This isn’t about replacing human judgment; it’s about augmenting our ability to serve merchants who’ve been underserved by legacy payment rails.

The consumer experience improvements have been remarkable. We’ve reduced account linking friction through intelligent user interface optimization, making pay by bank as simple as clicking a button. When consumers see 5% cash-back incentives — savings passed down from merchants who no longer pay interchange fees on every transaction in exchange for increased customer lifetime value — adoption follows naturally.

Economic Headwinds, Tailwinds for Innovation

Regulatory uncertainty and inflation pressures are forcing merchants to scrutinize every basis point of payment processing costs. Interchange rates, which are between 2% and 3.5%, are hard to justify and hurt — particularly for high-volume, low-margin businesses. This economic reality is accelerating pay-by-bank adoption faster than our most optimistic projections suggested.

I believe we’ll see U.S. pay-by-bank volumes exceed $150 billion by year-end, driven not by technological innovation alone, but by economic necessity. Major retailers following Walmart’s lead aren’t making philosophical statements about payments — they’re making pragmatic business decisions about profitability.

Looking Ahead: The Second-Half Opportunity

The convergence of instant payments infrastructure, open banking regulation and merchant cost pressures creates an unprecedented opportunity for pay-by-bank adoption. Our company is positioning aggressively for this inflection point, investing in our own capabilities and expanding our guaranteed bank payment offerings.

The payments industry’s second half won’t be defined by who builds the most comprehensive platform, but by who solves the most pressing merchant problems most elegantly. At Trustly, we’re betting on consumer coverage, conversion-driving simplicity, cost efficiency and guaranteed outcomes.

The future of payments isn’t about replacing cards — it’s about giving merchants and consumers a choice when those cards don’t serve their best interests.